← Many Realms Arena Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Many Realms Arena Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.3%
avg ELO -12.2 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1131
· median 1131
· range 1131–1131
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1172
Q3 1415
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 33.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
